Thai-US relations are drifting apart

By Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation
Published on February 1, 2010

IT WAS VERY RARE for an American envoy of good standing to come out recently to criticise the Thai government over a policy of Hmong refugee repatriation at the end of December. Eric John was diplomatic enough to describe the operation as "involuntary"- which meant a forced send-back in layman terms. The Thai government was not happy and strongly rebutted his views. This episode just shows how 176-year old Thai-US relations-the oldest in the region - are getting more rusty by the day, unless something is being done about it.

In coming weeks, given Thailand's geographical location, vexing issues related to repatriation will continue to stalk and black-eye Thai-US relations. The reported repatriation of 3,000 Karen, as well as several tens of thousands of Burmese migrant workers, could easily undermine their friendship, if they come about. The mood in Washington among administration officials and lawmakers is not friendly towards Thailand at all, having not yet recovered from the year-end cross-border Hmong trauma.

No wonder senior Thai and US officials are asking repeatedly what actually is the value of the five-decade old Thai-US alliance. Since he came to power last January, President Barack Obama has repeatedly stressed the importance of the US alliance in the Asia Pacific, but nothing seems to trickle down and impact their bilateral ties. Both sides often ask about what are the indicators in their time-tested friendship. Gone were the days, when hundreds thousands of US troops mounted Afghanistan-Pakistan like operations across Indochina from airbases in Thailand. Back then that was the real meaning of a true ally-a great benchmark.

The world faces a sea change after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the US having a black president who preaches soft power and dialogue as a tool box for diplomacy. After the 1990's, with the peaceful settlement of the Cambodian conflict, Thai-US relations suffered a common symptom of enemy deprivation. Even the nearly three decade-old annual joint military exercise, "Cobra gold", has turned international.

The world's largest multinational military exercises have to constantly come up with new themes without a specific target, as in the past. This year's exercise, which begins today, is focusing on rapid deployment forces to increase capacity to conduct international operations such as terrorism, disaster relief efforts and transnational threats.

With political turmoil ongoing in Thailand since 2006, the US perception of Thailand is not as positive and as enthusiastic as it used to be. At one point, Washington insiders even viewed the country as a failed state that could not function normally and implement agreed policies. Thaksin Shinawatra's world-wide and sustained media spin portrayed Thailand as a non-democratic country, ruled by elites and military dictators, further bruised its image.

Worse still, there are no US lawmakers in the Beltway these days who will speak up in defending Thailand's long standing records. In contrast, those who are anti-Thailand are aplenty. For instance, Senator Patrick Leahy is the most vocal of all as he wants to punish the Thai establishment, especially the military, for its failure to respect international standards relating to the screening and repatriation of refugees.

Whenever repatriations occur over here, key US lawmakers perceive them simply as an act of pushing out innocent people who could be prosecuted and mistreated at home. They want to reprimand Thailand, sending strong messages to its leaders on moral grounds, without putting them into the context of the longstanding Thai-US alliance. Granted the political reality in Washington DC, it is difficult for the administration to back Thailand amid such Congressional hostility. In 2003, the US Congress even allocated a little acknowledged one million dollars to promote democracy in Thailand, because of Thaksin's infamous judicial killings of drug suspects and muddling with freedom of expression.

In coming days, the Thai-US alliance will be put to the test again when Army Chief General Anupong Paochinda makes his first week-long official visit to Washington, beginning on February 5. His delegation will be given the red carpet treatment to highlight the importance of the Thai-US alliance, which so far has been more focused on verification of thick coup rumours than future strategic planning or discussion. However, if there is a push back of Karen refugees ahead of his visit, he definitely will be the target of attacks by US lawmakers and their sanctions.

It will be interesting to speculate on what will be the outcome of the high-level visit. Of late, the Thai Army has looked for non-US military hardware as part of a diversification campaign. That indeed has affected the so-called interoperability of the two armed forces.

Since the US has paid lesser attention to Thailand since the 2006 coup, military leaders have been looking for new sources of weapons elsewhere. Washington often sees value in Bangkok on an ad hoc basis, depending on logistic requirements of specific missions. A senior Thai military official described the US attitude towards Thailand this way: "We will call you when we need you." Thailand's participation in the extraordinary rendition programme in 2003 to detain terrorist suspects and the arrest of Hambali were cases in point.

To be fair, Washington has been cossying up with the Abhisit government, with growing rapport between Obama and Abhisit helping tremendously to push Thailand up from a back seat through their meetings at three summits last year. Obama even praised Abhisit for his effective Asean chairmanship and leadership at the end of the first Asean-US leaders' meeting in Singapore. Somehow though, Abhisit has not been able to shake off the image of a non-elected government.

Washington's mood also affects other Southeast Asian countries. For instance, Vietnam, which used to occupy top slot in the US during the Bush administration, is no longer in such a position. Repeat prosecutions of human rights activists have tarnished the Congress' goodwill toward Vietnam. Chances of having the second Asean-US leaders' summit in Vietnam are near impossible at this point in time.

Indonesia's burgeoning democracy has made the country quite popular on the US top list. Singapore continues to be an all-time favourite because it is no-nonsense in its pro-US position.

Thailand has informed the US it would seek more equal and balanced relations with the US. If possible, further talks to amend the archaic Thanat-Rush defence agreement (1962) could be in the pipeline to keep up with the current geo-strategic landscape in the region. Since the Cold War threat no longer exists, there is an urgent need to review the first defence cooperation in Southeast Asia.

Both sides must ensure that the third round of strategic dialogue, scheduled in early March, would be tangible and comprehensive.